Dear Friends,
You know what 2020 needs to make things really exciting? An alien invasion. Now that the Pentagon has confirmed the authenticity of three UFO videos that have floated around for a few years, I’ve taken the time to watch them. I assure you that, not being a fighter pilot, I have no idea what I’m looking at. But neither do the actual fighter pilots, and that’s a little unnerving.
Anyway, the girls and I had fun discussing it, and I lean toward the “secret government program” camp. Probably so secret most of the Pentagon doesn’t know about it. You see, there isn’t any known precedent for alien visitors, but there is precedent for secret programs: in 1988 not only did the government let the world know that it had developed a stealth aircraft (the F-117 Nighthawk), but also revealed that an entire squadron had been fully operational for five years! I was 12, and—it being the height of the Cold War and all—I found the whole thing thrilling.
Anyway, it’d be fun to hear your theories, so feel free to post them in the comments and I’ll highlight the most entertaining ones in next week’s newsletter.
I didn’t really want to give you another thing to really worry about because we have plenty of that. Over 60,000 COVID-19 deaths (not the flu), tens of millions of people out of work, an economy on the life support provided by the 24/7 ventilator known as the Federal Reserve (what could go wrong just printing money indefinitely?), the collapse of trust in important institutions (CDC, WHO, Media, Government, etc.—with themselves often to blame) along with a precipitous rise of cynicism, anger, and distrust is all worrisome enough. So let me assure you: if there are visitors from the heavens, they too, are part of the “square inches” over which Jesus Christ is Lord, and he’s got it all under his wise control and plan.
The Great Debates
I have not contributed much to debates about the lethality of COVID-19, models and curves, quickness and competence of government responses, nor the questions of whether the shutdown was or continues to be the appropriate response. Some people might be irritated by that or at least wondering why I’ve been so silent on these kinds of issues.
Here’s my secret: I don’t know. And I don’t know why it is so difficult for pundits, prophets, and politicians to admit that they don’t know everything they need to know.
Here’s what I do know: people expect others to take a “side” on all of these questions. But life is far too complex to be easily sifted into two categories that always happen to align with one’s political objectives. My Facebook and Twitter feeds are almost uniform: On one side, all the hype is overblown and there is obviously no need for these draconian shutdowns (also: President Trump himself bears no responsibility for said shutdowns; he’s captive to Drs. Fauci, Birx, and other “Deep State” scientists. As somebody aptly put it: in the minds of his most ardent supporters, Trump cannot fail; he can only be failed). On the other side, if you are not in favor of closing even parks, forests, and beaches, you’re a science denier who wants old people to die. It is always a zero-sum, binary choice: either total shutdown or total reopening; either “it’s just the flu” or it’s the apocalypse; either caring about people (endless quarantine) or caring about greed (opening the economy).
I’m not denying that some of these issues and responses to them are political—there is a reason politicians on the left seem to love draconian shutdown measures (they do enjoy government power and do not see themselves so much as public servants as public lords) and some on the right love populist protests in favor of opening up the economy (they do love individual freedom). But not everything is political: COVID-19 doesn’t care about your party affiliation, and there are plenty of other factors that color one’s perspective, from socio-economic status to geography (New Yorkers are prone to think very, very differently than the average Montana rancher).
This, it seems, is symptomatic of our society generally. There is not a lot of room for nuance, and so what we think about a novel virus sweeping the globe immediately becomes a proxy for our political alignments and aspirations. Since I’m such a wishy-washy person, I will now give you at least one strong opinion: this is mind-numbingly stupid, a sure sign of a civilization’s decline, and a major factor in my intense desire to delete my Facebook account.
I am a conservative in the classical sense, and here are a few reasons among many: (1) Recognition that no single person or group has enough competence and knowledge to command and direct a society in all of its interactions. (2) Recognition that this is a diverse society that resists “one size fits all” solutions. (3) Recognition that there are always complicated tradeoffs and downsides—utopian perfection is a dangerous delusion.
What this means in practice is that the best solutions to this crisis will be complex, diversified, and, yes, imperfect. Let me briefly apply these principles.
Complex: We should expect complexity. The truth is somewhere in between “COVID-19 is just the flu” and “COVID-19 will kill every last man, woman, and child.” And guess what? Computer modeling is useful and also very complex. Even assigning causes of death is a very complicated task. None of this is a simple matter—Facebook memes notwithstanding—and neither will the solution be. Therefore, it cannot be boiled down to a question of “continue the shutdown” v. “reopening.”
We simply must get on with business and find ways of doing so that reasonably protects the vulnerable among us. And I believe that the vast bulk of the “know how” will come not from legal dictates from Governors or guidelines from the CDC; it will come from the actual trial and error of local communities caring for their own commerce and their own vulnerable populations. The government cannot love you or your neighbor. But neighbors can love each other, and I am confident that by and large they will—if the government will “let” them.
Diversified: Newsflash. Absarokee, Montana does not very much resemble New York City. (Please don’t visit to find out; my trout stream is already too crowded—I shockingly saw another fisherman recently.) The idea that uniform guidelines should govern all the vast swaths of America is patently ridiculous, but this is the result of our long practice of making everything a matter of national politics. We’ve largely lost the notion that individual states are, well, states, and now is a time for a reassertion of that principle. But the “nationalization” of our discourse has an unfortunate side-effect: all the Governors (well, mine, at least) seem to be making political calculations based on how it will make them look to their own political tribe on the national level. There is a lot of virtue-signaling going on, and that is because all of the binary political thinking I was lamenting earlier is true of the politicians themselves.
But the solutions will have to reflect the vast diversity of our country, and, quite frankly, they will. Reality always trumps theory in the end.
Imperfect: And speaking of reality, this one is hardest. There is no way for some government fiat to provide for everyone’s economic well-being and keep everyone safe from COVID-19. That is a thought experiment that illuminates how our zero-sum, binary thinking is itself utopian. In other words, people are going to die from this disease. And people also die from poverty and depression. These are, therefore, questions of wisdom and prudence, recognizing that in our fallen world there are tradeoffs to everything we do.
Here’s an example of just such a tradeoff: the whole idea behind shutting down the economy was to prevent overload to our medical institutions. So, naturally, we also banned “elective” surgeries. We’ve got to keep those hospital beds open! Now hospitals (particularly rural ones, or those in places with low numbers of COVID-19 cases) are laying off workers to avoid bankruptcy. “Helping” the medical community has, in many cases, hurt the medical community. There are no perfect or easy solutions, or some simple application of a “principle” that avoids all downsides.
We need thoughtful, responsive wisdom in our leaders. We need a healthy supply of that just as much as we needed ventilators.
Miscellany
Spring has finally arrived in Big Sky Country. Things are getting green, and it is pleasant to be closer to the sun again. The evidence is showing that COVID-19 doesn’t do nearly as well in the sunshine and the great outdoors, so go fishing, or take a walk or a hike!
I try to be honest about what I don’t know, and I’m grateful that God has gifted a lot of people to know a lot more than me. Over the years, I’ve learned a great deal from my friend David Bahnsen, the only man I’ve ever met who doesn’t seem to sleep. He’s the founder of The Bahnsen Group, a successful bi-coastal wealth management firm, and if you have any interest in capital markets, economics, or politics he’s an incredible resource. I’ve been an avid reader/watcher of his Dividend Cafe podcast and weekly publication, and he has been churning out a daily newsletter called COVID & Markets, which is full of information and analysis you can’t get anywhere else. Take a look at those resources and marvel along with me at his intellectual capacity. Oh, I’d also recommend subscribing to his YouTube channel because his frequent appearances on cable news shows are always insightful and entertaining.
Our read-aloud of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings continues. Last night was “The Ride of the Rohirrim,” and the final passages are so eloquent, inspiring, and moving I got choked up during my very dramatic read. I wanted to leap out of my chair and go to battle alongside Theoden right then and there. It really should take its place as one of the great works of Anglo-Saxon literature.
I wish there would be a decay of this zero-sum mentality. It's idiotic.
The folks at Apologia and their podcast “Cultish” discuss the demonic and supernatural in light of the “UFOs” that appear to defy scientific laws. I highly recommend their discussions on these topics dealing with Tom DeLonge. There is a very heavy religious nature and experience these folks are having with it. And it shouldn’t be surprising that these things appear in a society embracing paganism. Apparently there is some historical precedent for it.