Democrats Cut The Rope

Will The Reduced Drag Succeed?

Dear Friends,

It is probably about time for me to comment on our recent political upheavals, so here is an unscheduled Quarter Inch. I cannot rightfully say that I have been surprised; after all, everything is going just as I predicted in January. I had Biden exiting the race sooner than late July, and I had Gavin Newsom as the pick coming out of the Convention—which does seem rather farfetched at this point. It is more likely that the Democrats rally around Harris, but she has unique liabilities and surprises may await. Not everyone in the Democrat huddle will be happy with her.

I also predicted that the Democrat nominee would defeat Donald Trump in November. Do I still stand by that? Trump is flying high at the moment. He is leading every poll of the battleground states, had his party jolted to new heights of (sometimes downright messianic) adoration following his survival of the attempt on his life, and from all accounts the Republicans put on a successful convention. With the Democrats now in unprecedented, full-fledged chaos mode, do I really think they still have a chance?

Yes, I do. Republican partisans are at present wildly overconfident. They forget that their nominee is deeply unpopular.  Dan McLaughlin provides a jolt of reality:

Over half of the country hates Donald Trump, and I do not think one should underestimate the possibility that they will vote for anyone with a (D) after his or her name, so long as they are not senile. In two words, the Democrats have struggled this election cycle because of one problem: Joe Biden.