Dear Friends,
What a difference a year makes.
One of the most common fallacies to which we are prone is the “straight-line” projection. We look around, see a trend (or we imagine one), and then we project that trend out into the future as though there are no other factors or forces that might alter the trajectory. It’s easy, it’s shorthand, it’s understandable, and it’s even sometimes psychologically useful in calculating risk. But it isn’t the way actual reality involving human beings works. And from time to time it is worth recalling instances of previous predictions and evaluating how they turned out.
I had been told, just like I was told in 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 that our very civilization was at stake in the 2020 Presidential election. If Joe Biden wins, so it went, then we’ve “lost” the country. RIP, U.S. Constitution. The Left’s radical progressive wing would realize its every lofty goal and certain dystopia would arrive. It was, again, a “Flight 93” election—the plane is going down, so you might as well go down with a fight. And you know what? Apparently the Left believed this, too (Note: human beings are not rocks you roll down a hill—there’s agency to account for). Joe Biden believed that if he won he would have a mandate to become a new FDR or LBJ, and he could reshape the size and scope of the Federal government for generations! He could have staked out a more modest agenda, but alas.
And so, in January of 2021, a large portion of the Right was in a hysterical panic. If you truly believed all this rhetoric, wouldn’t you be, especially if you believed the election was stolen (a belief which itself was the perfect feedback loop: both the cause and result of panic)? They held rallies wherein they pleaded with God above, performed weird religious ceremonies you won’t find in, say, The Book of Common Prayer, and “prophesied” certain victory. Radio host Eric Metaxas assured President Trump he was ready to “shed his blood” for the cause. Some of these true believers then took matters into their own hands and sacked the Capitol for a few hours.
Needless to say, the prophecies of certain victory did not come true. (God will remember, though, and he won’t be mocked.)
And then, to add insult to injury, the resulting despair over the certified election results led to the totally unnecessary loss of two GOP Senate seats in Georgia, giving the Democrats control of the upper chamber.
RIP, Civilization! Right?
Wrong. A few data points:
Quinnipiac’s latest job approval rating for President Biden is… 33%.
Most observers believe the 2022 midterm elections in November will be a bloodbath for the Democratic Party.
The grand legislative plans to reshape America did not materialize. The total accomplishments of the new administration was a COVID relief bill and a stripped down infrastructure bill. Pretty paltry, given the grand designs.
Supply chains, inflation, and COVID also had something to say in the past year.
And now, having been stymied even with nominal control of both houses of Congress, President Biden went to Georgia the other day on a fool’s errand: to push for the passage of two voting rights bills that requires something unprecedented and herculean: dismantling the legislative filibuster in the Senate. And he was practically frothing at the mouth. Just read this outrageous litany of false dichotomies:
Do you want to be on the side of Dr. King or George Wallace? Do you want to be on the sides of John Lewis or Bull Connor? Do you want to be on the side of Abraham Lincoln or Jefferson Davis?”
Oh, are those the choices? Support my two bills or you’re a racist? Nice try.
It is embarrassing for the President to be reduced to such demagoguery, but it turned out even more embarrassing when, on Thursday morning, Senator Kyrsten Sinema cold-heartedly strangled the twin bills in their cribs. She gave a rock-solid, hard “No” to changing the Senate filibuster rules.
I think you can stick a fork in this supposedly “civilization-ending” Presidential administration. If the projections for the midterms are anywhere close to accurate, it is pretty much a lame duck from here to 2024.
Populism lives and dies on the passions of the moment, and not only do those passions typically run on fanciful “straight-line” projections, they are highly unreliable. It is instructive, is it not, that people claiming to care the most about the country, to be the most concerned about the radical Left and its agenda, the very ones proclaiming the End of All Things If We Lose, TruePatriots™ were the first to pick up their marbles, say “it’s all rigged, anyway,” go home, and not bother voting for a Senate seat in Georgia? Passions can flare hot like white phosphorous, but they don’t have much staying power.
Do I think our civilization is in decline? I most certainly do. But it will most certainly not be straight-line decline, it will probably not be swift decline, and the more fruitful approach in arresting that decline is a long, cool, steady, multifaceted strategy rather than bellicose, hot-tempered political populism. Not all-or-nothing gambits, not “Hail Mary’s” into the end zone, not “storming the cockpit,” but steady, consistent conviction in a million little things. Politics is one of those things (but certainly not the most important of things) and how many times now has that steady, slow, “RINO squish” named Mitch McConnell stood in the gap and thwarted the Left at every turn? (It’s almost too perfect that he also looks like a Tortoise—as in, Tortoise and the Hare. Remember, he always wins in that story.) I’ve lost count, so maybe at some point people will realize that “squishy” is the wrong word for “rock.” I’m sorry, that was a joke. Some people will never realize how silly they sound.
I read something on Facebook this week in which the author was mocking the squishy, moderate “elites” who resisted Donald Trump (someday these tedious essays will cease, but today is apparently not that day). And he wrote that the reason they did (aside from invoking the cliched “enjoyment of cocktail parties”) is that they are “always desiring some instantiation of John F. Kennedy or Marcus Aurelius to rise from the ashes.” That’s a weird thing to write because I think most of those people would’ve been fine with Chris Christie or Mitt Romney. It is MAGA world who wanted—and thought they’d found—a world-historical figure. I suspect—but I could be wrong—that in the grand scheme of things it is the boring people, the McConnells and Romneys of the world, who tend to produce longer lasting political results.
It is also important to realize—and this is my real interest—that politics is but one aspect of our civilizational decline, not the whole of it. In fact, it is probably the least of it because at bottom it is a symptom, not a cause, of decline. I’ve said this before, and it bears repeating: most of us don’t have much influence on politics. But we all have some cultural influence. We have families and neighborhoods and communities and churches and businesses and workplaces and clubs and associations, and we have a role to play in influencing those things toward the good, the true, and the beautiful. Long, cool, steady, consistent, and mature conviction in those spheres will make a more lasting impact than a spasm of passionate panic. Eugene Peterson once wrote a book called, A Long Obedience in the Same Direction: Discipleship in an Instant Generation. That’s a good description of what our cultural and political engagement should look like, too.
Again, look at the apocalyptic predictions in January 2021, compare them to the reality of 2022, and stop buying what the panic producers are selling.
Keep Calm and Carry On, my friends.
P.S. This probably means turning off your cable news shows for good.
Miscellany
My eldest daughter is feeling under the weather, and we have various pastimes for such occasions. BBC’s Wives & Daughters might get watched, or, more often Jane Austen’s Emma (there is only one true version, you know: the one with Jonny Lee Miller and Romola Garai).
But this time we rediscovered the very best way to pass sick time: The Lord of the Rings: Extended Editions. Now, I know that some of you probably don’t care for the LOTR movie franchise, but hear me out. What you need to understand is that the films that appeared in the theaters are not the real films. The extended editions are the true realization of Peter Jackson’s vision, and I am telling you that side-by-side they are just different films. Sometimes you see “Director’s Cuts” and extended editions of movies that might add fifteen or twenty minutes to the run time, and maybe include a scene or two cut from the theatrical version. Not so here: some of these versions run an hour longer than the theatrical releases, they provide infinitely more depth to the characters and story, and, most importantly, are fully finished (music score, color correction, audio, everything seamlessly put together). That is a labor of love from Jackson and his team—in fact, I’m amazed they somehow managed to have the budget to do it. While they couldn’t fix the one great glaring hiccup in the franchise (foolishly deciding to change Faramir’s role in The Two Towers, which got them into a ridiculous plot problem from which there was no plausible escape), the extended editions form a rich and exquisite presentation of Tolkien’s epic.
But I’m not talking about the movies. We already watched them over the New Year break. No, I want to talk about The Appendices. As you might know, at the end of The Lord of the Rings, Tolkien wrote a number of appendices about Middle Earth. They’re treasure troves of fascinating information. In true Tolkien spirit, Peter Jackson and the team put together appendices (extra features) for the extended editions of the movies. They are simply some of the most amazing things I’ve ever seen. They are “behind the scenes” looks at the “making of” the films. Backstage footage, interviews with the actors, producers, artists, screenwriters, and so forth. They go on for hours, and never get boring.
And I’ll tell you: the filming of those three movies (all at once, by the way, over 438 days) is a human achievement that is difficult to capture in words. You just have to see what went into this. You might think you know how they did various things; you really don’t. Every five minutes I’m exclaiming, “Wait: that wasn’t CGI?” They really built Helm’s Deep in a rock quarry? They really did blow up the wall? That was a real battering ram and they made the stunt guys really bust down the door? Treebeard was a real robotic puppet? They built Fangorn Forest inside a studio with real trees and foliage? Edoras was really built on top of that hill, and the vista was real, not digital? That awesome scene where the Rohan flag is ripped off by the wind and Aragorn picks it up on the way into the village was a happy accident perfectly captured by the cameras? Aragorn’s great cry of anguish after kicking the orc helmet upon not finding Merry and Pippin was because he’d just broken his toes? On and on it goes, one delightful revelation at a time.
I could go on all day, but just two more things. The artists of WETA Workshop are truly unbelievable. You can even hate the movies, if you want; but you’d better admire the worlds and cultures they built from scratch, with the help of longtime Tolkien artists Alan Lee and John Howe. They took sketches and paintings and brought them into being. And, second, it is a crying shame that the world doesn’t really know just how amazing Andy Serkis is. And not just because of the voice. Gollum is not a CGI character. He’s a composite, yes; but what you don’t realize is that Andy was there; all that physicality was really him. He beat himself up, crawling on all fours, really splashing through freezing rivers and swamps. And WETA Workshop had to basically invent how to combine different animation techniques to capture Andy Serkis putting on the performance of a lifetime.
Next time you’re laid up and need something to binge, get the LOTR Appendices. They’ll endlessly entertain you. I’ll leave you with this gem:
Agree with you on Emma. Garai's remorse at the rebuke over Miss Bates is the best. Taylor-Joy's acting, by comparison, seems more like a petulant remorse at being rebuked, rather than the weight of her cruelty sinking in. (Of course... in the heat of a rebuke, who really "gets it" in the first few seconds? Maybe Taylor-Joy ain't so bad.)
https://youtu.be/JFyIoNwhiw0
good reminder, "sacked the Capitol for a few hours." seems a bit overstated. Mostly peaceful? :)